Even pundits who clearly understand both that the outcome of the Republican primaries is near enough certain and that the 2024 election is particularly high stakes seem to love the ritual and the pageantry of the nominating process.
In the run-up to Iowa’s contests, they nattered on endlessly about the ‘life-threatening cold’ in the state (major winter storms had hit much of the US) and the ‘hardy’ Iowans who wouldn’t let the weather stop them from caucusing. But unable to resist a horse race narrative, they also, somewhat confusingly, blathered about how some Midwestern conservatives might stay home due to the enthusiasm gap between the supporters of Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. This, they suggested, would be to Trump’s advantage.
Maybe they had a point. Trump did win the low-turnout caucuses by a record-breaking 30%, with DeSantis in a distant second, just a bit ahead of Haley, who was widely expected to take second place but whose supporters were less enthusiastic according to polls.
Even so, there was never any real competition among the Republican nominees. And there is no evidence, now that DeSantis has dropped out, that the competition between Trump and Haley will tighten much going ahead. Trump beat her in New Hampshire, after all, despite the high proportion of independents voting in the primary there.
Ever since DeSantis’s campaign began to seriously lag months ago, American pundits and news presenters have held up Haley as a possible more ‘moderate’ alternative to Trump, even though it has long been clear that the GOP base is disinclined to accept any alternatives.
